Combat odds

What the dice actually roll

Every hit, evade and resist on Aelrynth is one curve on the gap between two skills. Punch in the two numbers and read the odds — the same arithmetic the server runs, nothing rounded off. Use /inspect in game for a creature's effective numbers.

chance to land = 1 ÷ (1 + e^{−0.03 × (attack − defense)}) · the defender evades or resists the rest · each 23 points of gap roughly halves what gets through

Their swing against you

Your effective defense — the skill after your weapon's defense mod, burden and stance, imbues added; exhausted counts as zero — against their attack. The same box serves all three: melee against melee D, missiles against missile D, spells against magic D.

Their attack skillmelee, missile, or the caster's magic skill

Your defensemelee D, missile D or magic D, effective

—

you evade / resist

—

they land

—

gap (defense − attack)

The table walks your defense up and down from what you typed. Your row is highlighted.

Your swing against them

Your effective attack — the weapon skill times its offense mod, and for missiles the accuracy bar — against their defense from /inspect. Melee against their melee D, missiles against their missile D. Spells are a two-step, below.

Your attack skillweapon skill or magic skill, effective

Their defensetheir melee D, missile D or magic D

—

you land

—

they evade / resist

—

gap (attack − defense)

The table walks their defense up and down from what you typed — for tuning a creature to a target player.

Casting a spell at all

Before a spell can be resisted it has to come off. That is the same curve on your magic skill against the spell's difficulty, but steeper — a 0.07 factor instead of 0.03 — so a spell 20 points over your skill fizzles four times in five, and 20 under lands four times in five.

Your magic skillwar, life, creature or item, effective

Spell difficultyon the spells page

Their magic D (optional)for the combined odds

—

cast succeeds

—

then beats magic D

—

both: spell lands

Working backwards

The number you actually want when tuning: given one skill and the evade chance you are aiming for, what must the other be?

Their attack skill

Evade chance wanted (%)

—

defense the player needs

—

or: the attack to give a creature so a player with that defense evades this often

100% is not on the curve — it only approaches it. 99% needs a 153-point gap, 99.9% a 230-point one.